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Carlsquare weekly market letter: Busy week. Fed could surprise the market

Read the weekly market letter here:

Carlsquare weekly market letter

  • The Fed is behind the curve again. They have positioned themselves in a hole where the market expects a move that signals lower rates. If they stick to the last script of “higher for longer”, the market may turn sour today when the Fed releases its new statement. If so, this could be a buying opportunity as we still believe in the Santa Claus rally
  • It is a heavy macro week overall, starting with inflation yesterday and today and the Fed meeting tonight – and ending with the quadruple witching on Friday in the options market. So, there is a lot of implied risk in the market this week, setting the table for a smoother and more lazy market into Christmas and the new year

The chart below shows the US 10-year Treasury yield in a 60-minute chart, falling in a clear channel. If this channel holds, the stock market can rally.



The information in this presentation is based on what the publisher, Carlsquare, believes to be reliable sources. However, we cannot guarantee its content. Nothing in the presentation should be construed as a recommendation or solicitation to invest in any financial instrument, option, or the like. Opinions and conclusions expressed in the presentation are for the recipient’s use only. The contents may not be copied, reproduced, quoted, or distributed to anyone else. Carlsquare shall not be liable for any loss arising from any decision taken based on the information contained in this presentation. Past performance should not be taken as an indication of future results. Changes in foreign exchange rates may affect the value, price or income of an investment made abroad or in a foreign currency.

The analysis is not directed at U.S. Persons (as that term is defined in Regulation S under the United States Securities Act and interpreted in the United States Investment Companies Act of 1940), nor may it be distributed to such persons. The analysis is not intended for natural or legal persons where the distribution of the analysis to such persons would involve or entail a risk of violation of Swedish or foreign laws or regulations.

Carlsquare weekly market letter: Busy week. Fed could surprise the market