Opinion polls versus odds

Opinion polling companies versus gambling companies

There are major uncertainties regarding the composition of parliament seats prior to the upcoming Swedish general election that takes place on September 9. According to the median of the 10 most recent public opinion polls (http://pollofpolls.se/), the centre-left party Social Democratic Party (Sw: Socialdemokraterna) is expected to be the largest party in the new parliament post election night with approximately 25% of the popular vote. Moderate Party (Sw: Moderaterna) is expected to be the second largest party with 19.5% while Sweden Democrats (Sw: Sverigedemokraterna) is expected to be the third largest party in the parliament with 19.1% of the popular vote.

However, some of the gambling companies that operate in Sweden don’t agree with current opinion polls. Betsson (2018-08-23) places the lowest odds (highest probability) on the scenario that Sweden Democrats will become the largest party in the new parliament (1.70) while Social Democrats receives an odds of 1.85. In other words, Betsson believes that Sweden Democrats will receive more votes than Social Democrats – quite the contrary to current opinion polls.

Anders Elgemyr, CEO of Carlsquare, appeared this morning in the morning show “Börsmorgon” hosted by Dagens Industri and talked about the upcoming Swedish general election and the deviation between public opinion polls and current betting odds. Anders also believes that if Sweden Democrats becomes the largest party in the parliament that would imply severe difficulties to the formation of the new government which in turn would generate opportunities on the stock market.

Dagens Industri (in Swedish): Video