Equity research CDON: Preview , Q4 2025 – GMV growth and earnings increase

We expect continued overall GMV growth in Q4 2025, in line with recent-quarter rates and consistent with our base-case assumptions. In combination with overall stable OPEX, this should support a higher EBITDA margin. We make slight downward adjustments to our estimates as we temper our expectations for the Fyndiq segment somewhat.

GMV growth and margin increase trend to continue

According to PostNord, e-commerce in Sweden rose by ten per cent in Q3, the highest quarterly growth since 2021. As previously commented, CDON reported a seven per cent increase in Gross Merchandise Value (GMV) for the same period (all Nordic markets). In Sweden, there has been a clear recovery in the Furniture & home furnishings categories during 2025, and the demand for home electronics appears solid. This is supported by a reasonably positive trading update from Curry’s (owners of Elgiganten). Additionally, a PostNord survey suggests that Black Week activity was stronger than in 2024, while the average order value remained unchanged. Also, preliminary reports (e.g., HUI) indicate solid Christmas sales for the Swedish retail sector.

Our research into visit data suggests strong growth in traffic to CDON sites in Q4, while visits to Fyndiq sites appear to have levelled off sequentially. If these observations are correct, this contrasts somewhat with the general development since the merger was completed and up until the latest quarter, insofar as Fyndiq has been the stronger performer in that period. We expect a total Gross Merchandise Value of SEK 610m for Q4 2025, an increase of some nine per cent, hence a growth in line with the previous quarter.

Given our assumptions about traffic mix, average order value, and take rate, this translates into net sales of SEK 135m (139), with the decrease driven by CDON 1P and Fyndiq. Nevertheless, we see slight growth in Gross Profit after Marketing as well as a clear uplift in EBITDA (at SEK 19m vs 11m), helped by an assumed trend towards normalisation of OPEX.

Overall, we make slight downward adjustments to our estimates, expecting a nudge lower GMV in 2025 to 2027 than previously. Our EBITDA estimates for 2026 exclude any costs for growth initiatives for comparability. We are still waiting for more clarity on the timing and size of these initiatives, first announced in September 2025.

Peer valuation is slightly down

Our peer group of internet marketplace companies experienced a slight decline in value during the fourth quarter. Allegro reported solid profits in Q3 but lowered its FY 2025 GMV guidance slightly, and Alibaba shares have fallen partly related to US-China tensions in the AI area. Amazon bucked the trend in the latest quarter, however.

We calculate that the CDON share is still trading at a discount to peers (EV/Sales NTM 1.4 vs. 2.6 for the peer group). The discount is relatively high in a historical perspective. We will review our base-case valuation in conjunction with the Q4 report on 13 February, but do not foresee major changes unless market volatility increases.

Read our latest update here.

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