Equity research Viva Wine Group: Preview Q4 2025 – Profit growth from acquisition and margin recovery

Viva Wine Group (the company or Viva) will release its Q4 2025 report on 19 February 2026. Below are Carlsquare Equity Research’s updated estimates ahead of the report.

• Also in Q4 2025, market volumes in Nordic monopolies appear to have been slow according to published statistics. We have not seen the volumes from Systembolaget. We expect stable organic sales for Viva Wine’s Nordics operations, while the acquisition of Delta Wines will once again boost the topline significantly (we assume some 46 per cent for the group in Q4).
• In Q3, the “old” Viva Wine operations displayed a solid performance, with organic growth and margin increase in a soft market. Despite continued market headwinds, it bodes well for solid profit growth also in Q4 (Viva has guided for higher gross margins sequentially).
• At the same time, sales and profitability for Delta Wines have been somewhat disappointing so far, in our view. We see room for improvement in Q4, supported by seasonality, but expect profitability to continue to lag the rest of the group.
• For B2C, we assume some growth following continued activities to attract orders from new customers. Overall, surveys indicate decent growth in German e-commerce in October and November. However, in general, we do not expect a strong pick-up in wine demand.
• For the group, we expect an adjusted EBITA of SEK 144m (104), corresponding to a margin of 8.3% (8.7). We expect the earnings growth to come from roughly similar parts, Delta acquisition, and improved margins in the Nordics.
• We lower our 2026 estimates somewhat as we anticipate more flattish Nordic markets, while on the other hand, we anticipate no significant boost from price changes. Still, there is room for profit growth, as H1 2025 was burdened by low volumes, soft gross margins, and high OPEX relative to sales. We will review our base case valuation in conjunction with the Q4 report on 19 February, but do not expect significant changes to our DCF valuation.
• We expect an unchanged dividend of SEK 1.55 per share as we believe the Viva board will prioritise deleveraging over a dividend hike.
• The share performance has lagged the overall market, shadowing the peer group of wine producers. However, if solid profit growth is also confirmed in Q4, we believe the share could see a rerating.

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