Equity research CDON, Q1 2025: First impression

Today, CDON AB published its interim report for Q1 2025. Below are our first impressions of the outcome, including deviations from our estimates.

Weaker quarter than expected and strategic review

Today, CDON AB published its interim report for Q1 2025. Below are our first impressions of the outcome, including deviations from our estimates.

The main news is that the board has initiated a review of strategic alternatives in order to realise the full business potential of its segments. The evaluation process will start immediately, and the Board of Directors will consider all potential options for CDON, including, but not limited to: take-private transaction, capital raise to fund strategic growth opportunities, sale of the Company (whole or in part), as well as other strategic transactions.

In Q1 2025, GMV and net sales continued to decline at a similar pace as the previous quarter. Hence, the top-line outcome was clearly worse than our expectations. CDON says January and February were weaker than expected, but March delivered a performance in line with last year’s figures. One bright spot, however, was somewhat lower costs than expected.

• In Q1 2025, CDON AB reported a Gross Merchandise Value (GMV) of 350m, corresponding to a 12 % decline. Our forecast for the quarter was SEK 419m. The drop was due to a lower conversion rate, while visits and average shopping basket increased slightly.
• Net sales also declined for the group, across all segments, but led by CDON segment (-20%)
• EBITDA improved to SEK 0.2 (-2). This is mainly due to lower OPEX and stable marketing costs, but also a positive one-off effect from bad debt resolution. CDON states that it remains firmly on track to realize previously communicated merger synergies. However, as a result of slow sales, the operating improvement is at a slower pace than we had previously forecasted.

We intend to provide a research update on CDON AB shortly. Read our latest update here.

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