Equity research Viva Wine Group: Preview Q1 2026 – Advancing in sour markets

Viva Wine Group (the company or Viva) will release its Q1 2026 report on 7 May 2026. Below are Carlsquare Equity Research’s updated estimates ahead of the report.

• We expect Q1 2026 net sales of SEK 1,367m (895) boosted by the acquisitions of Delta Wines and Alpha Brands (we estimate ~+54 per cent positive impact). We acknowledge some uncertainty regarding Delta Wines, as we do not have the historical sales for Q1 2025.
• At the same time, low demand and seasonality (Q1 is typically the weakest quarter of the year in the Nordic B2B markets) will negatively impact organic growth and volumes. We believe wine demand has been slow at the beginning of the year, in line with the previous quarter. For example, the Finnish monopoly market was down 5.7 per cent in January tp March despite a soft comparison period in 2025.
• For the group, we expect an adjusted EBITA of SEK 78m (50), corresponding to a margin of 5.7% (5.6). We expect earnings growth to come from roughly equal parts: acquisitions and improved margins in the Nordics.
• We lower our estimates in the near and medium term due to sluggish markets, implying a slower market recovery in e.g. Sweden than previously assumed. Also, we have become more cautious on gross margins as we fear inflationary pressure on materials and transport in the wake of the Iran crisis. For example, in 2022, following the Russian invasion of Ukraine, margins in Sweden dropped markedly by 3.4 percentage points (albeit the strong EUR was admittedly likely the main culprit).  However, we do not expect as severe an impact this time, and lower OPEX-to-sales in line with company guidance should mitigate margin pressure somewhat.
• Our revised forecasts and lower peer valuation entail a review of our valuation model. For example, we calculate that the peer group EV/EBIT NTM multiple has contracted to about 11.3x vs 12.4x previously. We adjust the base case valuation to SEK 49 (54). However, this still represents a clear rerating potential from current levels.

Read the latest research update here.

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