Equity research, Lokotech H2 2025: Orders stack up and warrants sweeten the case

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In 2025, Lokotech reported revenues of NOK 10.3m, below our estimate from March 2025 due to the delayed launch of Hashblade. The company now expects first deliveries to be shipped in H2 2026. We see an attractive opportunity in subscribing for the warrants with a strike price of NOK ~0.61.

Strong operational momentum for Powerpool

For FY 2025, net sales came in at NOK 10.3m, well below our forecast of NOK 36m from March 2025. The gap reflects a delayed launch and sales of Hashblade. Revenues were instead driven by Powerpool, which is showing clear operational momentum, with rising hashrate and a growing base of connected customers. That said, this did not translate into sequential growth in H2 2025 as prices for cryptocurrencies retraced while the company to a greater extent used affiliates during the ramp-up phase, which in turn held back the company’s average fee level.

For the full year, EBITDA came in at NOK -23.1m versus our initial forecast of NOK -12m. The miss was driven by lower revenues and slightly higher OPEX. CAPEX of NOK -77.1m primarily relates to a prepayment for the mask set for the Scrypt ASIC chip, which is the core of Hashblade. At year-end 2025, cash stood at NOK 37.0m.

High interest ahead of launch evidenced by pre-orders

During 2025, the company completed extensive testing and tape-out preparations for its IC design. On 15 December 2025, the final chip design run was initiated ahead of handover to the foundry for manufacturing. The company now expects first deliveries to take place in H2 2026. According to the report, the value of existing Hashblade pre-orders is in the range of USD 7–13m. Cancellations were limited to USD 53,000, despite a price correction in Scrypt-based coins. One possible explanation is that Hashblade’s superior energy efficiency becomes relatively more valuable in a low-price environment, and that long-term players have limited economic incentive to cancel. In addition, US authorities’ classification of LTC and DOGE as digital commodities, via the SEC and CFTC, could further support demand.

Clear potential upside versus the warrants’ strike price

We forecast FY 2026E net sales of NOK ~17m, with just under one third from Hashblade sales, where first deliveries take place in H2. Given leading energy efficiency and potential in, among other areas, a number of AI applications, we assume a sharp ramp in hardware sales in the coming years. In our scenario, the business reaches EBITDA break-even in 2027E and, with strong growth and a scalable model, we see the EBITDA margin trending towards ~19% in 2028E.

In our base case, we estimate fair value at NOK 1.1 per share, which makes the outstanding warrants, with a strike price of NOK ~0.61 per newly subscribed share, attractive.

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