Equity research CDON: Moderate capital raise, profitability improving in Q3

Following a strategic review,  CDON has announced a SEK 45m directed issue to accelerate growth initiatives with the aim of an EBITDA uplift of SEK 50m by 2027.  The Q3 2025 preannouncement suggests that profitability is improving ahead of our previous expectations. Our preliminary assessment is that the plans support our forecasts in the medium term.

CDON has completed a SEK 45m directed share issue at a subscription price of SEK 62.6 per share, a slight premium to the recent share price levels.  Several of the Company’s larger shareholders participated in the Directed Share Issue. Further, board members Christoffer Norman, Brad Hathaway and Alexander Bricca have undertaken to subscribe for 116,800 shares. This part of the issue needs to be approved by an EGM as it is directed to insiders.

The raise follows a strategic review initiated this spring, which resulted in the decision to accelerate internal growth initiatives. These initiatives are focused on accelerating growth in the Nordics outside Sweden and increasing investment in tech resources, marketing, and advertising. The board targets an EBITDA uplift of SEK 50m by 2027 from these measures.

Encouraging development in Q3 2025 so far

CDON also provides preliminary financials for the July-August period, which indicate GMV growth of about seven per cent, similar to Q2. EBITDA amounts to about SEK 9m, suggesting that profitability is improving somewhat ahead of our expectations.  We view the news as a welcome sign of a return to profitable growth.

While we will need more details regarding the growth initiatives, we believe they support our forecasts in the medium term, albeit involving some cost increases in the short term.

All in all, we are encouraged by the preannouncement and the growth and profit targets. We will return with a Q3 preview and research update shortly. We expect minor changes to our base case valuation, considering, e.g., the 6.3 per cent dilution from the directed issue. However, once we learn more about the specifics, the initiatives will likely have some impact on our near-term cost estimates in 2025-2026.

Read the latest update here.

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