Equity Research Svenska Aerogel, Q1 2025: Strong pipeline and growth

Svenska Aerogel Holding AB’s (“Svenska Aerogel” or the “Company”) sales in Q1 2025 exceeded our estimates. At the same time, the Company has begun to receive an increasing number of orders. A recently completed rights issue is expected to contribute approximately SEK 15 million net to the cash position during Q2 2025. However, there remains a risk of additional financing needs within the next 12–18 months.

Second quarter in a row with revenues exceeding estimates

In Q1 2025, Svenska Aerogel reported revenue of just over SEK 1.4 million. Our revenue estimate for Q1 2025 was SEK 0.9 million, meaning the outcome exceeded our expectations. The company reported an EBITDA of minus SEK 6.6 million, where our estimate was minus SEK 5.6 million. EBIT came in at minus SEK 8.5 million compared to our estimate of minus SEK 7.6 million.

CEO Tor-Einar Norbakk stated in the report that during Q1 2025, the company received an order for 2 tons from a player in the thermally insulating outdoor products segment, as well as a trial order of 1.5 tons from Matrix Brands. Several customers within the Advanced segment are preparing for commercial launches. In the Building & Construction segment, Krahn Italy’s customers have continued the development of Quartzene®-based surface coatings. In the Transport segment, Belcor® has developed Belcotex®, a new insulation material containing Quartzene®, tailored for electric vehicles. A patent application has been filed, and the launch is planned for May.

Svenska Aerogel recently raised SEK 24.6 million through a rights issue. After deductions for issuance costs and conversions, we estimate that the company will receive approximately SEK 15 million net. Given this, the company may require an additional capital injection already during the first half of 2026, as noted in our previous analysis update. The financing risk is therefore high over the next 12–18 months. According to our scenario, the company will need to raise SEK 40–45 million before reaching profitability.

In our updated scenario, we have revised our revenue estimates upward for 2025 and beyond, following two quarters of higher-than-expected income. We also assess that the pipeline going forward holds significant potential. At the same time, there remains considerable uncertainty regarding when revenues will become sufficient to cover the company’s costs. We estimate a net revenue of approximately SEK 7.4 million for the full year 2025, up from our previous estimate of SEK 5.8 million. In our revised scenario, we estimate sales of around 140 tons of Quartzene® and a positive result in 2028.

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