Equity Research Svenska Aerogel, Q2 2025: Increasing pipeline supports positive outlook

Svenska Aerogel Holding AB (“Svenska Aerogel” or the “Company”) reported sales in Q2 2025 that were lower than our estimates, but revenue for the first half of 2025 is still higher than for the full year 2024. A recently completed directed issue of units is expected to add just over SEK 15 million net to the Company’s cash position during the second half of 2025. At the same time, there remains a risk of additional financing needs within 12–18 months. 

Strong growth, but lower than expected revenues

In Q2 2025, Svenska Aerogel generated revenue of just over SEK 1.3 million, compared with our estimate of SEK 1.7 million. EBITDA came in at –SEK 6.5 million versus our estimate of –SEK 5.5 million, while EBIT was –SEK 8.3 million compared with our estimate of –SEK 7.5 million. Total revenue for H1 2025 reached about SEK 2.6 million, already exceeding full-year 2024, despite Q2 results falling short of our estimates.

During the quarter, Svenska Aerogel received a container order of Quartzene® worth just over SEK 0.6 million from its French distributor Novcoat, as well as a larger 2.6-ton order from a North American manufacturer of insulating outdoor products, which the Company says intends to scale up Quartzene® in its portfolio. As noted in our June 2025 commentary, we view this as a positive sign that Quartzene® meets both technical and commercial requirements, supporting its market relevance and potential for a longer-term agreement. The Company also recently delivered its first order to Matrix Brands, comprising 1.5 tons of custom-developed aerogel material.

On the financing side, Svenska Aerogel recently completed a directed issue of units to investors with a long-term perspective at a subscription price of SEK 1.80 per share. The Board has also proposed a directed issue on the same terms to major shareholder Gästrike Nord AB and members of management, subject to approval at an extraordinary general meeting on 19 September 2025. Existing shareholders will be compensated for dilution through free warrants. Under our scenario, the Company is expected to require an additional SEK 25–30 million before reaching profitability.

In our updated scenario, revenue estimates for 2025 have been revised down, while estimates for 2026 are slightly higher than previously. Margin forecasts have been adjusted lower following the developments in H1 2025.

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