Equity research CDON: Preview Q1 2026 – Continued growth, but initiatives will likely hamper earnings

We expect continued growth, albeit slightly below the strong Q4 level. Focus is on implementing growth initiatives and on the outlook in light of recent developments, including the onboarding of major merchants and changes to the marketing channels.

Continued growth expected despite slight channel issues

We expect continued GMV growth in line with recent trends; however, seasonality is naturally weaker in Q1 than in Q4. We estimate that traffic has developed slightly below our previous assumptions. Still, we assume 10% GMV growth, somewhat below the 15% growth rate in Q4 2025.

One factor behind the possible (slight) shortfall is likely that CDON removed its products from the price comparison site Prisjakt in February as increased fees made the collaboration uneconomical. We estimate that Prisjakt accounted for about 5% of traffic to CDON.se until the termination. We believe the impact on overall traffic so far has been limited, suggesting that decent growth in other channels has mitigated the effect. Given the public backlash against Prisjakt’s pricing policy from several e-commerce players, we believe the bottom-line impact is negligible. We estimate that most of the traffic to CDON group sites comes from other sources, primarily organic search. The onboarding of new major European merchants could help underpin growth from Q1 onwards.

According to Svensk Handel’s e-handelsindikatorn survey, e-commerce in Sweden increased by 1% and 15% in January and February 2026, respectively. Typically, this survey is quite volatile and somewhat difficult to interpret. However, it supports the view of continued e-commerce growth following the good development in 2025.

Given our assumptions about traffic mix, average order value, and take rate, this translates into net sales of SEK 84m (81). We assume costs for growth initiatives, such as the onboarding of tech resources, have resulted in an OPEX increase, resulting in an EBITDA loss of SEK -4m (0). The earnings estimates are uncertain at this point, as CDON has not communicated the exact cost and timing of its growth initiatives.

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