Equity research Viva Wine Group, Q4 2024: First impression

Today, Viva Wine Group published its interim report for Q4 2024. Below is a compilation of our first impressions of the outcome, including deviations from our estimates. The company will host a webcast with a telephone conference today at 11:00 a.m.

Viva Wine Group’s sales figures exceeded our expectations, as growth in the Nordics segment was overall higher than our forecast, with Sweden and Norway as the main positive contribution. Sales in the eCom segment declined less than we had expected, while the profit was in line. Viva says it has good momentum in the Group and is continuing to develop in the right direction. In the Nordics, there will also be continued work to safeguard future growth in 2025, which will have some impact on OPEX.

• In Q4 2024, Viva Wine Group reported net sales of SEK 1,194m, corresponding to an 8.7% growth. Our forecast for the quarter was SEK 1,151m.
• The Nordic segment increased net sales organically by a solid 10.5% on an underlying monopoly market with negative volume growth of 0.5%, compared to our expectation of 8%.
• Net sales for the Viva eCom segment declined by 2.2%, burdened by a weak German market. Our expectation was negative 5%.
• Gross profit calculated on net sales increased by 22% in Q4 2024, year-over-year, to SEK 256m. Our forecast was SEK 242m. The gross margin improved markedly by 2.3 percentage points to 21.5% in line with our forecast.
• Like in the previous quarter, Viva substantially improved profitability. Adjusted EBITA increased by 49% to SEK 104m, corresponding to a margin of 7%. Our forecast was SEK 106m, equivalent to a margin of 9.2%. The difference is due to higher OPEX  than we expected.
• The board proposes an unchanged dividend of SEK 1.55 per share, as we had forecasted.

We intend to provide an updated analysis of Viva Wine Group shortly. Read the last research update report here.

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