Equity research, Zinzino Q1 2025: Solid profit growth

Today, Zinzino published its interim report for Q1 2025. Below is a compilation of our first impressions of the outcome, including deviations from our updated estimates.

In line with the sales pre-announcement on 3 April, Zinzino reported revenue growth of 59 per cent in Q1 2025. This was chiefly driven by solid sales momentum in core markets such as Central Europe and North America. Despite a lower gross margin, earnings and EBITDA, as well as EBIT margins, were a bit better than we had anticipated. The solid profit growth, despite adverse FX effects of SEK 10m. signals improved scalability and is encouraging in view of somewhat disappointing margins in recent quarters.

Given the very strong run this year (+122% per yesterday), we expect a somewhat positive initial share price reaction.

• Total revenues increased by 59% in Q1 2025 to SEK 724m, which is in line with the preliminary sales figures already disclosed in April.
• Gross profit grew by 39% to SEK 224m, compared to our forecast of SEK 240m. Year-over-year, the gross margin decreased by 4.5 percentage points to 30.9%. Our forecast was 33.1%.
• Year-over-year, the EBITDA result increased to 79x, corresponding to a margin of 10.9%. Our estimate was for SEK 74m, corresponding to a margin of 10.2%.
• The EBIT result increased year-over-year by 60% to SEK 71m, corresponding to a margin of 9.8%. Our estimate was for SEK 67m, corresponding to a margin of 9.2%.
• Zinzino says it looks promising that it will exceed its growth target of 20 per cent growth for the year.
• Zinzino has recently reported expansion into significant new markets in the Asia Pacific region by adding China and New Zealand to the map. For China, Zinzino will employ a cross-border social e-commerce model. Zinzino cites estimates that calculate the Chinese market for personalised nutrition and supplements market to USD 616m, growing at high teens.

We intend to provide an updated analysis on Zinzino shortly. Read the latest research update here.

Disclaimer

Carlsquare AB. www.carlsquare.se. hereinafter referred to as Carlsquare. is engaged in corporate finance and equity research. publishing information on companies and including analyses. The information has been compiled from sources that Carlsquare deems reliable. However. Carlsquare cannot guarantee the accuracy of the information. Nothing written in the analysis should be considered a recommendation or solicitation to invest in any financial instrument. option. or the like. Opinions and conclusions expressed in the analysis are intended solely for the recipient.

The content may not be copied. reproduced. or distributed to any other person without the written consent of Carlsquare. Carlsquare shall not be liable for either direct or indirect damages caused by decisions made on the basis of information contained in this analysis. Investments in financial instruments offer the potential for appreciation and gains. All such investments are also subject to risks. The risks vary between different types of financial instruments and combinations thereof. Past performance should not be taken as an indication of future returns.

The analysis is not directed at U.S. Persons (as that term is defined in Regulation S under the United States Securities Act and interpreted in the United States Investment Companies Act of 1940). nor may it be disseminated to such persons. The analysis is not directed at natural or legal persons where the distribution of the analysis to such persons would involve or entail a risk of violation of Swedish or foreign laws or regulations.

The analysis is a so-called Assignment Analysis for which the analysed company has signed an agreement with Carlsquare for analysis coverage. The analyses are published on an ongoing basis during the contract period and for the usually fixed fee.

Carlsquare may or may not have a financial interest with respect to the subject matter of this analysis. Carlsquare values the assurance of objectivity and independence and has established procedures for managing conflicts of interest for this purpose.

The analysts Markus Augustsson and Niklas Elmhammer do not own and may not own shares in the analysed company.