Equity research CDON Q4 2025: First impression – Good growth and encouraging 2027 target

Today, CDON AB published its interim report for Q4 2025. Below are our first impressions of the outcome, including deviations from our estimates.

CDON posted double-digit growth in both GMV and net sales in Q4 2025, exceeding our expectations. This is despite the company stating that the previously announced onboarding of large European merchants has been delayed to Q1 2026.  CDON says “growth initiatives will require investments that will weigh on near-term profitability, but we believe they will bring an incremental SEK 50m in EBITDA for 2027. Combined with continued growth in our underlying business, this EBITDA from growth initiatives should result in total EBITDA approaching SEK 100m for 2027”. This profit target looks thus higher than our current 2027 forecast of SEK 77m.

• In Q4 2025, CDON AB reported a Gross Merchandise Value (GMV) of SEK 644m, corresponding to an 15% increase. Our forecast for the quarter was SEK 610m. The main positive deviation was in the CDON segment.
• EBITDA improved to SEK 18m (11), just slightly below our forecast of SEK 19m. The main deviation from our margin forecast is higher marketing spend.

In sum, overall growth was strong, and the company’s outlook for 2027 profitability is more optimistic than expected. Rising paid traffic costs are still a risk to margin expansion. We believe the report supports our view of profitable growth (adjusted for growth initiative costs) with a potential upside to our 2027 estimates. There are still few details about program costs.

We intend to provide a research update on CDON AB shortly. Read our latest update here.

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