Carlsquare’s newest report examines M&A and growth financing across the energy transition and cleantech sectors.

Executive Summary

• Capital continues to flow into the energy transition, but value is shifting towards selective, defensible positions; France has too few champions.
• European cleantech funding has stabilised and M&A is rebounding, although France is not benefiting equally.
• China leads in hardware, while US companies are gaining ground through software and AI.
• Traditional moats offer partial protection; years of real-world operating data can provide a more durable advantage.

Where is capital flowing, and how is deal activity changing?

H1 2026 indicator	Europe	France
Cleantech funding	c.€5bn; 62% of the H1 2022 peak	c.€0.8bn; around one-sixth of the European total
Energy-transition M&A	345 deals; up 25% year on year	46 deals; down 10% year on year
Share of European M&A deals		Fell from 19% to 13%

Why does France have too few cleantech champions?

Unwinding a failed project is estimated to cost around 38 months of employee compensation per person in France, compared with around three months in Denmark or Switzerland. Only two of approximately 60 French unicorns are core industrial cleantech players. An illustrative comparison with benchmark countries suggests potential for around ten; this is a scenario, not a forecast.

What are the competitive pressures from China and the USA?

China’s manufacturing costs are 30–60% lower across many key energy-transition technologies. It also accounts for more than 80% of global PV manufacturing capacity across key stages and leads the refining of 19 of 20 strategic minerals. In the US, private AI investment reached $285.9bn in 2025, compared with $20.9bn in Europe; US platforms are already present in Europe’s energy-intelligence layer.

Which moats can protect value?

Service, regulation, infrastructure, intellectual property and sovereignty can each provide partial protection. Years of real-world operating data, accumulated experience and know-how are difficult to replicate and can support a more durable advantage.

Key Takeaways for governments, corporates and investors

• Governments: Lower the cost of failure so more capital-intensive and technologically risky projects are attempted.
• Corporates: Reinforce defensible moats and deliver tailored data services.
• Investors: Apply the Rule-of-40 lens while assessing how defensible moats and accumulated operating data may support a premium exit.

Interested in Strategic M&A or Financing Opportunities in Cleantech?

Carlsquare’s team partners with cleantech innovators, entrepreneurs, and investors across France and Europe. We provide M&A advisory, growth equity, and debt financing services for companies shaping the future of the energy transition.