Equity research Viva Wine Group, Q3 2025: Strong Nordics support margin targets

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Organic growth in Q3 2025 improved as we had expected, despite market headwinds. However, profitability was higher than we had assumed, due to better-than-expected gross margins in the Nordics. Combined with a promising trend in the e-commerce business, we are seeing above-market growth and gradually improving margins. Relative valuation supports rerating potential, and we raise the base case valuation.

Good organic growth in the Nordics and B2C business

Viva Wine Group managed to weather declining market volumes in Q3 2025, achieving organic growth of 2.8% as a result of higher pricing. The uptick in growth in the Nordics versus the previous quarter showcases Viva’s ability to leverage its broad offering in the region, we believe. In addition, the B2C segment grew by five per cent due to a high intake of new customers following successful marketing in new marketing channels and campaigns. Overall, group sales increased by 49 per cent to SEK 1,487m, in line with our expectations, boosted by the acquisition of Delta Wines. Viva says Delta is outperforming a weak Dutch market.

Viva does not provide guidance on the market outlook for Q4 2025, but comments that market volumes are generally declining slightly while value remains stable. It has a positive view on its e-commerce operations in the final quarter. We believe it supports our view of slight underlying growth in the current quarter, while the Delta acquisition will boost the reported top line.

Profitability is recovering after a lacklustre first half, beating our estimates

Adjusted EBITA improved markedly to SEK 123m (98), corresponding to a margin of 8.3%. Our forecast was SEK 106m, equivalent to a margin of 7.0%. The main deviation from our forecast was a 0.9 percentage point higher gross margin than expected in the B2B segment, driven by increased margins in the Nordics. Viva expects the gross margin to improve slightly in the B2B segment in Q4 compared to Q3, supported by seasonality. We are encouraged by the higher margins in the Nordics. At the same time, we calculate that Delta Wines’ profitability is lagging behind the rest of the group. The gap in Q3 appears wider than we had expected, but Viva believes Delta’s margins will strengthen in Q4. In summary, we adhere to our previous Q4 2025 forecasts, implying similar profitability to Q3, until we see more evidence of higher margins in Delta.

New margin targets align with our view

The updated EBITA margin target of 8-10% (previously 10-12%) in the medium term announced on 19 November better reflects the new group structure and increased exposure to B2B . As it aligns with our forecasts, it does not significantly alter our outlook. We make minor upward changes to our earnings estimates, including higher gross margin assumptions. We calculate that Viva Wine Group is now valued below its peers at an EV/EBIT NTM of 11.4x, compared to 13.3x, underlining its rerating potential.

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