Equity research CDON, Q2 2026: GMV leads, profits should follow

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CDON beat on GMV, but earnings missed our estimates, with the Q2 2026 shortfall largely explained by a lower take rate and higher marketing costs.  The 2027 earnings inflexion thesis, however, remains largely intact, with operating leverage expected to kick in as growth initiatives mature.

Growth trend in GMV continues, take rate is lagging

We believe the stronger-than-expected 13% increase in Gross Merchandise Value (GMV) in Q2 2026 reflects the marketplace’s ability to adapt to trends and seasonality rapidly. Also, the onboarding of new, larger European merchants (“giants”) is now well up to speed, with a clear positive effect on product supply and order volumes. We expect additional “giants” in the near future to help underpin growth. The impact of newly introduced EU tariffs on small parcels for Fyndiq is hard to predict. We expect higher sales (value) but lower take rates in the short term. In summary, double-digit GMV growth for the group also looks feasible in H2 2026, not least given that growth initiatives in marketing and SEO architecture have yet to play out. The take rate in the period was weaker than expected at 17.6% (18.4), burdened by the deliberate shift into faster-growing but lower-take-rate merchants and categories, as well as declining performance fees. As a result, we lower our near-term expectations for take rate and net sales. However, we expect an upwards trajectory from Q2 levels in H2 underpinned by the scaling of retail media advertising revenue and the planned phase-out of loss-generating 1P revenue.

Pressure from increased costs is mostly temporary

The EBITDA loss was wider than expected at SEK -7.3m (0.4), primarily due to a sharper decrease in take rate and higher marketing expenses than assumed. The latter expenses are mostly planned and/or temporary measures, including some SEK -3m in brand marketing costs related to an upcoming campaign. Also, the very strong growth and a recalibration of performance marketing algorithms inflated Fyndiq’s marketing costs in the quarter. On a positive note, the announced phase-out of the legacy 1P business will likely mitigate some of the pressure on take rates. CDON also foresees “operational leverage starting by the end of the year” and sticks to its target of close to SEK 100m EBITDA in 2027. Nevertheless, we adopt a slightly more cautious stance and review our EBITDA estimates for 2026 to 2028E downward by 17%. This is mainly in light of an expected flatter take rate development in the near- to medium-term.

Despite short-term margin headwinds, we still see significant potential

In the last 15 months, CDON has demonstrated a return to growth following a period of integration work subsequent to the 2023 merger. While margins will likely remain subdued in the current quarter, evidence of improved operating leverage towards the end of the year is a probable catalyst for higher valuation. In accordance with the changes to the estimate, we adjust our base-case valuation.

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