Equity research CDON Q3 2026: First impression – Better growth than expected

Today, CDON AB published its interim report for Q3 2026. Below are our first impressions of the outcome, including deviations from our estimates.

Gross Merchandise Value (GMV) grew in the double digits, once again stronger than expected, and at an accelerated pace vs the previous quarter. The company says operating momentum improved in September with 32% GMV growth following the launch of a new product-data service. Also, sales from large European merchants continued to grow. Fyndiq GMV was up 11 per cent, which was better than feared, despite new EU duties on imports of low-value parcels. Retail media advertising has not yet generated any revenue, which the CEO labels as a disappointment.

Margins and EBITDA, at SEK 1m adjusted for 1P closure costs, were, however, somewhat lower than our expectations due to higher-than-assumed OPEX. Management says its ambition for 2027 is unchanged, with EBITDA approaching SEK 100m, and expects operating leverage to appear toward year-end as GPAM grows with a largely fixed cost base

• For Q3 2026, CDON AB reported a Gross Merchandise Value (GMV) of SEK 568m, corresponding to a 18% increase, an acceleration from the previous quarter. Our forecast was SEK 531m. The positive deviation was across the segments. Due to a lower take rate, net sales increase was limited to 3%, still above our expectations.
• EBITDA decreased to SEK-5.4 (12), compared to our forecast of SEK 3m. The difference from our estimates is a lower take rate and higher OPEX than assumed.
• Cash flow from operations increased to SEK 2m (-23.7) from improved working capital.

Growth has been stronger than expected, and the outlook is encouraging. While margins still trail our expectations somewhat we believe the Q3 report is something of a relief. We will review our assumption following the conference call, but overall, we do not expect major changes to our estimates and valuation.

The company will host a presentation of the Q3 2026 interim report at 10 am today. We intend to provide a research update on CDON AB shortly. Read our latest update here.

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