Equity research Viva Wine Group, Q1 2026: Nordics shine in a slow market

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Viva’s business in the Nordics grew with improving margins, while profitability for Delta Wines floundered somewhat in a slow season. Despite uncertain markets and potential cost inflation ahead, the company signals it can protect margins. Organic growth and improved operating efficiency bode well for continued profit growth.

Organic growth and margin increase in the Nordics

Viva Wine Group’s organic growth in Q1 2026, somewhat surprisingly, turned positive at two per cent, underpinned by solid sales performance across all Nordic markets. Also, price increases and a positive Easter effect contributed despite generally weak demand over the full quarter. Net sales amounted to SEK 1,351m, representing 51% growth, boosted by the acquisitions of Delta Wines and Alpha Brands. Our forecast for the quarter was SEK 1,367m. The deviation is due to a lower contribution from Delta Wines than we had assumed. The group EBITA margin at 5.5 per cent (5.6) was roughly in line with our expectations, as lower-than-expected profitability for Delta was mitigated by margin increases in the Nordics and the e-commerce business. Overall, Viva seems to perform better than its closest peers in the Nordics, building on its already strong market position and broad offering. Net sales for the B2C segment declined, but organic growth was 2 per cent. Our expectation was 3% growth. The EBITA margin increased to 5.8 per cent (3.8) due to lower operating costs.

Viva expects a stable gross margin despite expected cost inflation

The gross margin of 19.7 per cent (21.2) was in line with our expectations. Viva guides for a stable margin in 2026 (19.9 in 2025), as it expects a positive FX effect to offset higher freight costs driven by higher energy prices. Management also guides for OPEX to sales of 11-12 per cent in 2026E compared to 12.3 per cent in 2025. Viva says the first quarter provides a solid foundation for the rest of the year despite uncertainty regarding market development. The profitability outlook is better than we had feared, but we believe it is premature for us to pencil in a margin increase for 2026, given potential market headwinds.

Uncertain markets, but still room for earnings to continue to grow

We only make minor changes to our estimates following the Q1 2026 report. The organic growth is clearly encouraging. We expect markets in the current quarter to be volatile due to, e.g. the adverse Easter effect and uncertain consumer sentiment. Wine volumes were already down 19 per cent in April in Norway. We adjust our base-case valuation after peer multiples have turned lower and debt and minority shares have increased somewhat. We calculate that Viva Wine Group is still valued somewhat below its peers, with an EV/EBIT 2026E of 10.9x, compared to 11.5x.

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