Equity research Viva Wine Group Q2 2026: Margin relief in a soft market

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Despite the June preannouncement of weaker-than-expected sales for April to May 2026, EBITA increased in Q2 from improved gross margins. The acceptance period for the cash offer from Riesling Ventures ends on 28 August. We estimate the bid values Viva Wine Group at a premium (EV/EBIT NTM) to our selection of peers.  

B2B sales developed in line with a soft market

Viva Wine Group delivered a better-than-expected Q2 on sales, gross profit and operating earnings. Reported sales increased 21.2% year-on-year to SEK 1,623m, compared to our estimate of SEK 1.6bn. The increase was entirely driven by the Delta Wines and Alpha Brands acquisitions, while organic growth was -3.7%. Previously, the company said organic growth for the April to May 2026 period was 8 per cent negative. Hence, the June performance was relatively stronger. B2B sales in Q2 increased 24.7% to SEK 1,460m, while B2C sales decreased 2.1% to SEK 162m. Segment organic growth was -3.7%, with B2B at -4.0% and B2C at -1.3%, respectively. At the same time, the Nordic wine monopolies’ markets contracted by 4% overall. Easter timing negatively affected comparability, as most of the 2026 Easter sales fell in Q1 rather than Q2, but the report also points to weak consumer sentiment as a substantive demand headwind. Viva expects a continued soft market for the second half of the year, in line with the message we hear from competitors.

Positive margin development in the Nordics

Profitability was better than our lowered expectations, with a reported gross margin of 19.4% that topped our 18.7% assumption. B2B in the Nordics was the main explanation, with management citing positive currency effects and pricing, despite freight pressure. As a result, adjusted EBITA grew unexpectedly 6.1% to SEK 108m, and the margin held up better than anticipated a 6.7% (7.6).  Management targets an OPEX-to-sales ratio of 11-12 per cent in 2026E, down from 12.3 per cent in 2025. We are encouraged by the gross margin and operating performance despite soft volumes.  Hence, we see that the case for full-year earnings growth (EBITA) remains, despite the demand and cost headwinds.

Acceptance period for cash offer from Riesling Ventures ends 28 August

Following better-than-expected profitability, we raise our EBITA estimates for 2026-2028E by 5-6 per cent. We expect the SEK 38.5-per-share cash offer from Riesling Ventures AB for the outstanding shares of Viva Wine Group to be successful (the acceptance period ends on 28 August). Hence, we reiterate our base-case valuation of SEK 38.5 per share. This corresponds to an EV/EBIT NTM multiple of 13.2x, compared to 10.4x for the peer group.

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