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Carlsquare weekly market letter: Big Evening Star in S&P 500

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Carlsquare Weekly market letter

  • March-April is usually a strong period for the equity market, and 2023 is also the third year of the US presidential cycle, which usually gives a strong year. But the Fed is still hawkish, reducing liquidity and talking about even higher interest rates. This works against the seasonality of the stock market. Who will win?
  • There is a big Evening Star pattern in S&P 500 after Jerome Powell’s speech yesterday, probing for further downside
  • All eyes are on Friday’s inflation and employment data from the United States. The US dollar and the high-yield bond market are still the best indicators
  • The chart below is from McClellan and shows the US presidential cycle. The third year of the presidential cycle is usually strong for the equity markets.




The information in this presentation is based on what the publisher, Carlsquare, believes to be reliable sources. However, we cannot guarantee its content. Nothing in the presentation should be construed as a recommendation or solicitation to invest in any financial instrument, option, or the like. Opinions and conclusions expressed in the presentation are for the recipient’s use only. The contents may not be copied, reproduced, quoted, or distributed to anyone else. Carlsquare shall not be liable for any loss arising from any decision taken based on the information contained in this presentation. Past performance should not be taken as an indication of future results. Changes in foreign exchange rates may affect the value, price or income of an investment made abroad or in a foreign currency.

The analysis is not directed at U.S. Persons (as that term is defined in Regulation S under the United States Securities Act and interpreted in the United States Investment Companies Act of 1940), nor may it be distributed to such persons. The analysis is not intended for natural or legal persons where the distribution of the analysis to such persons would involve or entail a risk of violation of Swedish or foreign laws or regulations.


Carlsquare weekly market letter: Big Evening Star in S&P 500