Equity research Svenska Aerogel, Q1 2026: Rights issue and focus on upcoming catalysts

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Svenska Aerogel reported net sales of SEK 1.1m in Q1 2026, somewhat below our estimate. EBITDA of SEK -5.8m was, however, ahead of our forecast, driven by tight cost control. The 2026 catalysts remain intact, while the company executes a capital raise.

Cost discipline and a capital injection

Revenue and order intake have yet to scale in any meaningful way, which is in line with our expectations. In Q1 2026, net sales came in at SEK 1.1m, down 18% YoY and 12% below our forecast. Given the low revenue base, the variance was immaterial in practice. Tighter OPEX control, however, lifted EBITDA to SEK -5.8m, an improvement from SEK -6.6m in Q1 2025 and 9% ahead of our estimate. FCF came in at SEK -5.6m, with minimal capex. Cash at quarter-end was SEK 3.6m.

Shortly ahead of the Q1 report, the company announced a rights issue of units, with each unit comprising two shares plus a free-of-charge warrant (TO9). The subscription price is set at SEK 1.86 per unit, equivalent to SEK 0.93 per share. The subscription period is preliminarily scheduled for 29 April to 13 May 2026. Assuming full take-up, the company will raise net SEK ~17.8m. Of the proceeds, 54% is earmarked for sales and marketing, with the remainder intended to fund continued product and application development. The company states the issue covers its funding needs through to the end of Q1 2027. In addition, potential gross proceeds of ~SEK 9.2m could be added from TO9.

Full-year 2026 catalysts remain intact

The company has 15 customers in the commercial phase, with an aggregate volume potential of c.450 tonnes per year, and a project pipeline of 170 ongoing customer projects. The distribution network is being broadened via KRAHN Chemie in Germany, while new opportunities are opening up as the company’s material is being evaluated in the EU defence research project CATHERINA. Matrix Brands’ launch of a personal care product, expected around mid-year, stands out as the clearest near-term revenue catalyst for Quartzene®. Meanwhile, Outlast Technologies continues its ramp-up and remains central to the full-year view.

Clear potential upside versus the subscription price

Following the Q1 outcome, we cut our revenue forecasts for 2026–2028E by ~8% on average, reflecting a slower initial revenue ramp. This does not change our view on Quartzene®’s market potential. Based on our revised forecasts, higher funding risk, and the equity raise with associated dilution, we lower our base case fair value to SEK 1.5 per share (2.3).

Our fair value still implies clear upside versus the issue subscription price per share, driven by continued cost discipline and accelerating commercial momentum in H2 2026. Near-term risk remains high given uncertainty around the outcome of the capital raise. A positive outcome would materially reduce funding risk and thus, strengthen the case.

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