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Equity research Viva Wine Group, Q1 2024: Solid growth but at modest margins

2 May 2024

Viva Wine Group (the company or Viva) will release its Q1 2024 report on 16 May 2024. Below are Carlsquare Equity Research’s updated estimates ahead of the report.

  • In Q1 2024, the total sales volume in the monopoly market experienced a modest increase, partly due to the positive impact of Easter falling in March. We anticipate that Viva will continue to outpace the monopolies in sales volume growth, leading to an expected net sales increase of 8.0% to SEK 754m for the Nordic segment in Q1 2024. This represents an upward revision of our estimates by 2.4% compared to the research update published on 23 February 2024.
  • In Germany, the primary market for the Viva eCom segment, consumer confidence remained low over the past quarter, mirroring the trend in retail sales. Given this, we anticipate ongoing challenges in the eCom segment, with expected net sales to decrease by 1.4% to SEK 180m. This reflects a downward revision of 1.6% compared to the previous research update.
  • Total net sales for Viva Wine Group, accounted for the Other segment and eliminations, is expected to grow 6.0% to SEK 936m. This represents a slight upward revision of our estimates by 1.4% compared to the previous research update.
  • We anticipate a gross profit calculated from net sales at SEK 181m, equating to a margin of 19.1%. This represents a downward revision of 0.2 percentage points in our estimated gross margin compared to the previous research update. This adjustment is due to the expectation that FX will exert more pressure on the gross margin to than previously assumed.
  • We expect an adjusted EBITA at SEK 52m, corresponding to a margin of 5.6%. That is unchanged from what was presented in the initial coverage report. Adjusted EBITA is one of Viva Wine Group’s key measurements of profitability. Historically, “recurring adjustments” are made for payments to the founders of Vicampo. This adjustment is to be ceased as of Q1 2024.
  • EPS is expected at SEK 0.15 per share, unchanged from the last research update.

Read the latest research update here.

Estimates Viva Wine Group Q1 2024, Carlsquare

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Estimates Viva Wine Group 2024-2026, Carlsquare


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Equity research Viva Wine Group, Q1 2024: Solid growth but at modest margins