Equity research WPTG, Q2 2026: AI pivot accelerates growth and margins

Read the full research update below:

Net sales of MSEK 160.0 beat our estimate by 4%, while EBITDA of MSEK 30.1 exceeded expectations by 59%. The EBITDA margin expanded to 18.8% in Q2, driven by a deliberate shift towards AI-enabled software and IP revenue. The transformative Aixia acquisition was completed post-period, and the value is yet to be discounted in the share price.

Broad-based beat driven by AI revenue and operating leverage

Q2 net sales came in at SEK 160.0m, ahead of our SEK 153.5m estimate and up 20% YoY. The revenue mix continued to shift towards higher-value offerings as Software, Platforms & IP accounted for 22% of H1 revenue, up from 13% in FY 2023, whilst Managed and Recurring Services remained stable at 40%. AI-related revenue represented 19% of Group sales, supporting the margin expansion.

EBITDA amounted to SEK 30.1m, well ahead of our SEK 18.9m estimate, corresponding to an 18.8% margin versus 15.9% a year earlier. EBIT reached SEK 29.4m, compared with our SEK 18.6m estimate, representing 39% YoY growth. The margin expansion reflects the growing contribution from proprietary platforms and recurring revenue, alongside operating leverage on the larger revenue base. On the downside, cash declined from SEK 72.6m at year-end to SEK 47.2m as of 30 June. The reduction primarily reflected deployments into acquisitions and technology investments during H1, whilst working-capital timing also weighed on cash conversion. M&A and investment in development will likely continue to put some pressure on cash conversion going forward to help support growth.

Aixia reshapes the Group into a full-stack AI platform

WPTG had secured 96.4% of Aixia’s shares at a purchase price of SEK 168m. The acquisition strengthens WPTG’s presence in the Nordic market, which could help narrow the Group’s valuation discount to its peers over time. More importantly in the long-run, in our view, is the strategic value added by Aixia, providing capabilities and solutions that conclude WPTG’s AI offering, spanning the process from strategy and computing infrastructure to deployment and managed services. The investment case therefore rests not only on Aixia’s standalone contribution, but also on WPTG’s ability to improve the Aixia’s, as well as the Group’s, commercial performance, leverage its infrastructure capabilities across the Group and generate cross-selling opportunities over time.

Material estimate upgrades reflect a structurally stronger Group

Post the Q2 results and considering the financial contribution of Aixia as of 10 August, we raise our 2026E net sales estimate by 10% to SEK 713m and EBIT by 17% to SEK 121m, reflecting the Q2 beat and improved margin trajectory. The revenue CAGR for 2025-28E rises to 28.3% from 16.4% previously. Given our revisions, a fair value of SEK 32.1 per share (prior 30.1) is calculated, post dilution and for the upcoming 6–12 months. Our valuation corresponds to an EV/EBIT NTM of 9.3x and P/E NTM of 10.9x, a discount to Nordic peers of 19% and 10%, respectively.

Disclaimer

Carlsquare AB. www.carlsquare.se, hereafter referred to as Carlsquare, conducts operations in Corporate Finance and Equity Research and thereby publishes information about companies, including analyses. The information has been compiled from sources that Carlsquare considers reliable. However, Carlsquare cannot guarantee the accuracy of the information. Nothing written in the analysis should be regarded as a recommendation or invitation to invest in any financial instrument, option or similar. Opinions and conclusions expressed in the analysis are intended solely for the recipient.

The content may not be copied, reproduced, or distributed to any other person without the written consent of Carlsquare. Carlsquare shall not be liable for any direct or indirect damage caused by decisions made based on information contained in this analysis. Investments in financial instruments provide opportunities for capital appreciation and profits. All such investments are also associated with risks. The risks vary between different types of financial instruments and combinations thereof. Historical returns should not be considered as an indication of future returns.

The research is not directed at U.S. Persons (as that term is defined in Regulation S of the United States Securities Act and interpreted in the United States Investment Companies Act 1940) and may not be distributed to such persons. Nor is the analysis aimed at such natural or legal persons where the distribution of the analysis to such persons would involve or entail a risk of violation of Swedish or foreign law or regulations.

The analysis is a so-called commissioned analysis where the analysed company has signed an agreement with Carlsquare for analysis coverage. The analyses are published continuously during the contract period and against customary fixed remuneration.

Carlsquare may or may not have a financial interest in the subject of this analysis. Carlsquare values ensuring objectivity and independence and has therefore established procedures for managing conflicts of interest.

The analysts do not and may not own shares in the analysed company.