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Carlsquare weekly market letter: Time for a break

22 nov 2023

Read the weekly market letter here:


Carlsquare weekly market letter

  • As we correctly predicted, September’s sell-off has turned into a stock market rally. It is being driven by an improved inflation outlook and central bank policy changes. However, with a short trading week due to Thanksgiving in the US, trading is likely to be thin and dominated by traders
  • The set-up is for a continued strong market, but looking at various indicators, the VIX is giving a warning sign in the absolute short term. This could lead to a pullback in the market, but also leave room for Santa Claus to deliver a traditional Christmas rally

The chart below shows the 2-hour VIX index forming a falling wedge. The VIX reflects the market’s perception of volatility over the next 30 days.

 

Disclaimer:

The information in this presentation is based on what the publisher, Carlsquare, believes to be reliable sources. However, we cannot guarantee its content. Nothing in the presentation should be construed as a recommendation or solicitation to invest in any financial instrument, option, or the like. Opinions and conclusions expressed in the presentation are for the recipient’s use only. The contents may not be copied, reproduced, quoted, or distributed to anyone else. Carlsquare shall not be liable for any loss arising from any decision taken based on the information contained in this presentation. Past performance should not be taken as an indication of future results. Changes in foreign exchange rates may affect the value, price or income of an investment made abroad or in a foreign currency.

The analysis is not directed at U.S. Persons (as that term is defined in Regulation S under the United States Securities Act and interpreted in the United States Investment Companies Act of 1940), nor may it be distributed to such persons. The analysis is not intended for natural or legal persons where the distribution of the analysis to such persons would involve or entail a risk of violation of Swedish or foreign laws or regulations.

Carlsquare weekly market letter: Time for a break