Equity research CDON: Preview Q1 2025

Based on our research, we estimate that visits to CDON Group sites in Q1 2025 developed roughly in line with our assumptions per our latest update published following the Q4 2024 report. In summary, we preliminarily deduce that CDON Group will report a return to (slight) year-on-year growth in Gross Merchandise Value, helped by soft comparisons for the same period in 2024. As before, we expect Fyndiq to lead the way, with growth in the CDON segment still trailing behind. However, at the same time, historical comparisons for traffic to the group’s sites should be viewed with some caution due to changes in policy on bots and differences in CDON Group’s traffic reporting over time.

The signals regarding e-commerce so far in 2025 have been mixed and somewhat confusing. According to the Svensk Handel survey “E-handelsindikatorn,” Swedish e-commerce declined by six and 16 per cent in January and February, respectively. Svensk Handel reports weakness in clothing, shoes, beauty, and sporting and outdoor goods. In contrast, the STIL index from HUI paints a brighter picture for online clothing retailers, growing by 11 per cent in Q1 2025. In 2024, the home electronics markets were slow, but IT equipment distributor Dustin noted a slight increase in consumer demand at the beginning of 2025. For CDON, an early spring should probably be beneficial going forward, all else equal.

The valuation discount to the peer group has widened

We make minor adjustments and keep our full-year estimates virtually unchanged ahead of the Q1 2025 report. We expect EBITDA to improve year over year and turn positive in a seasonally weak quarter.

Mainly due to the depreciation of peer group valuation and a higher discount rate, we lower the base case valuation to SEK 120 (127) per share. This corresponds to an EV/Sales 2026E multiple of 2.2x, in line with the peer group valuation. We calculate that the share is valued at a significant discount to relevant peers (EV/Sales NTM 0.8 vs 2.2 for the peer group). The shares sold off during 2025, likely exacerbated by a disappointing Q4 2024 report as earnings fell. If our assumption of a return to profitable growth is correct, it could be a catalyst for rerating.

We will review our forecasts and valuation in more detail on 25 April in conjunction with the Q1 2025 report.

Read our latest update here.

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