Equity research Immunovia, Q2 2026: MediCare submission and partnerships in focus

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Although test sales are not specifically disclosed, we believe H1 2026 volumes were in line with our expectations, driven by increased penetration at high-risk surveillance centres. Medicare coverage submissions in Q3 2026 and partnership discussions remain key priorities, underpinned by existing and incoming clinical data.  

Looking to accelerate commercial and reimbursement traction

Immunovia reports that 27 high-risk surveillance centres have now used PancreaSure through the end of Q2, up from 21 at the end of Q1. Users include 10 of the top 20 U.S. cancer centres. The pipeline of engaged prospective centres has expanded from 71 to over 110 in the previous quarter. For H2 2026, the focus is on accelerating the conversion of prospects into active centres while also increasing the number of tests performed at already-registered centres from the “trial stage”. Net sales increased slightly compared to the January to March quarter, amounting to SEK 0.38m (0.09), in line with our expectations. According to Immunovia, net sales now consist mainly of PancreaSure test sales. Planned volume growth drivers for H2 2026 include a strengthened commercial team, recruitment through the ASSURE registry study and new clinical data. Earlier this summer, Immunovia presented a new pooled analysis from the previously reported clinical validation studies for PancreaSure, CLARITI and VERIFI. In high-risk symptomatic individuals, the test detected early-stage pancreatic ductal adenocarcinoma (PDAC) with 83 per cent sensitivity and 91.6 per cent specificity.  We believe the results are consistent with the previously reported overall accuracy in the combined CLARITI and VERIFI data. Immunovia reiterates its target to submit for Medicare Coverage in Q3 2026, based on historical analytical and clinical validation results and incoming clinical utility data. The company does not provide estimates for review times.

Business development discussions are ongoing

Cash burn was again below the company’s previous guidance and somewhat lower than our assumptions, extending the expected cash runway to early Q4 2026. By the end of Q2, the cash position was SEK 35m, down from SEK 56m in the previous quarter. We see it as likely that Immunovia will address financing in the near future, possibly in conjunction with news flow regarding regulatory or commercial progress. The objective is to extend the cash runway into H2 2027, suggesting that Immunovia is pursuing a combination of equity financing and strategic partnerships. While there was no tangible news regarding business development, Immunovia highlighted a strategic priority to partner with large US diagnostics companies to help realise the full commercial potential of PancreaSure. In addition, Immunovia mentions several promising discussions regarding the Chinese and Japanese markets. We have not yet included any milestone or license payments in our forecasts.

Minor forecast changes

Cancer screening companies in the US are enjoying some regulatory headwinds, and shares of sector peers have gained in recent months. As a result, EV/sales valuation multiples have strengthened. As we make only small adjustments to our forecasts, we leave the base-case valuation essentially unchanged at SEK 0.43 (0.42).

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