Equity Research Viva Wine Group: Key shareholders launch SEK 38.5 per share cash takeout offer

Riesling Ventures AB, a consortium formed by key shareholders Emil Sallnäs, Björn Wittmark, and John Wistedt, has made a public cash offer to acquire all outstanding shares of Viva Wine Group AB for SEK 38.5 per share. This offer values the company at approximately SEK 3.4bn and represents a 38.0% premium over the closing price on June 26, 2026. The offer price is final and will not be increased.

The independent bid committee of Viva Wine Group unanimously recommends that shareholders accept the offer. The consortium already holds approximately 62.79% of the shares in Viva Wine Group and has secured irrevocable undertakings from other shareholders, bringing the total committed shares to approximately 74%. The completion of the offer is conditional upon the offeror acquiring more than 90% of the total shares, although the offeror has reserved the right to waive this condition.

In its evaluation, the bid committee considered the challenging market conditions that Viva Wine Group has faced since its IPO in 2021. These challenges include a 40% decline in share price, slower growth in the e-commerce market, a decline in wine consumption, and a changing regulatory landscape. The committee believes the offer provides shareholders an opportunity to realise the value of their investment at a significant premium, especially given the low liquidity of the company’s shares.

Soft start to Q2 2026

In connection with the offer, Viva Wine Group discloses the financial performance from April to May 2026. Organic growth was -8 per cent, “lower than expected” according to the company.  A weak consumer sentiment and the timing of Easter negatively impacted sales. EBITA for the same period was SEK 54m, corresponding to a margin of 5.2 per cent. The company notes a negative impact from increased freight costs.

Although we only had estimates for the full second quarter, the stated numbers suggest softer development than we had previously anticipated, e.g., for the Nordics B2B business.  However, given the impact of acquisitions, seasonality, holidays, and weather, sales vary widely month to month, making a precise comparison with previous quarters difficult.  For example, April was most likely significantly impacted by an adverse Easter effect.

The offer price is slightly below our base case valuation of SEK 45 per share (before the SEK 0.8 per share dividend recorded on 26 May) as announced in our latest Research update. However, we will likely lower our estimates somewhat following the earnings preannouncement.

All in all, given the commitment from the largest shareholders and increased short-term market uncertainty, we see a high likelihood of a successful bid for Viva Wine Group.

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