Equity research Viva Wine Group: Preview Q1 2025

Viva Wine Group (the company or Viva) will release its Q1 2025 report on 15 May 2025. Below are Carlsquare Equity Research’s updated estimates ahead of the report.

• Based on sales statistics from the Finnish and Norwegian markets, we expect wine volumes in the Nordic monopolies to have markedly declined in Q1 2025, exacerbated by calendar effects and the late Easter making the same period last year a tough comparable quarter.
• Due to market share gains during 2024 and good performance in the Finnish grocery channel, we expect a milder volume contraction for Viva’s Nordics segment.
• In general, there are some positive signs for the e-commerce market in Germany. According to BEHV, total online sales in the country increased in Q1 2025. This might signal fewer headwinds for the e-com segment. However, uncertainty regarding trade policies and the business cycle might weigh on consumer sentiment in the coming quarters.
• At the same time, we expect Viva Wine Group to be relatively insulated from tariffs. While it imports from the US to some extent, we understand that Viva has a good supply and a broad offering of European wines, which might gain popularity if consumers move away from US wines.
• We revise our total net sales estimate for Viva Wine Group, including the Other segment and eliminations, in Q1 2025 downwards to SEK 916m (from SEK 968m previously), corresponding to a one per cent growth.
• In conjunction with the Q4 2024 report, Viva Wine Group guided for stable gross margins in 2025 from the Q4 level. However, in addition to lower sales expectations, we also adjust our margin and cost assumptions somewhat to reflect seasonality and increased OPEX to support growth in the Nordics. For the group, we expect an adjusted EBITA of SEK 69m (57), corresponding to a margin of 7.5% (6.3).
• Although we see good reason to expect a seasonal pick-up in market volumes in Q2 2025, we have become slightly more cautious and adjusted our earnings estimates lower by some two per cent overall, on average. We will review our current base case valuation of SEK 52 per share in conjunction with the Q1 report but do not foresee any significant adjustment at this point.

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