Equity research Zinzino Q2 2025: Ahead of the curve

Zinzino recently presented preliminary sales figures for Q2 2025. They demonstrated a 56 per cent growth in total sales, almost as impressive as the previous quarter’s 59 per cent. The growth rate was some nine percentage points higher than we had assumed in our latest update. While the performance is solid across most regions, Central Europe and Asia Pacific stand out as the main deviations from our previous forecast. North America was also stronger than expected despite currency headwinds.

In June, Zinzino acquired the assets of French direct selling business Ecosystem, with its brands in food supplements, cosmetics and wellness. Zinzino states that the operations had a turnover of some SEK 40m in 2024. Zinzino pays SEK 5.5m upfront, of which 50 per cent is cash and the rest is new Zinzino shares. In addition, the deal includes a possible earnout of up to SEK 45m contingent on the sales development of the acquired distribution organisation in the 2025 to 2030 period. In conclusion, Zinzino adds another bolt-on acquisition, now in the South and Western Europe region (in addition, Ecosystem has some sales in the French DOM-TOM territories outside Europe). The area has already contributed solid growth to overall group sales in recent years.

Persistent momentum supports higher estimates and valuation

Following the impressive growth in Q2 2025, we raise our estimates by eight per cent for total operating income. For the full year, we expect 59 per cent growth. Excluding acquisitions, we assume the growth rate will be above forty per cent. This highlights the strong momentum generated from both existing markets and the expansion into new countries. New additions in 2025 are China, New Zealand and the Philippines. The higher topline supports upping our earnings estimates (EBITDA) by 11-12 per cent.

The Q1 report demonstrated improving scalability despite lower gross margins hampered by increased distributor remuneration costs. Hence, we believe solid profit growth is also in the cards for Q2 2025. We expect margins to improve sequentially but to be softer compared to the same period in 2024.

Due to stronger-than-expected growth and an adjusted valuation approach, we raise our base case valuation to SEK 249 per share (187). More precisely, we now rely solely on a DCF valuation since our previous peer group appears increasingly irrelevant due to Zinzino’s superior growth. We believe very solid growth and healthy returns, as demonstrated by Zinzino in 2024-2025, could warrant a PE of around 30x.

Read our latest research update here.

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