Equity research Viva Wine Group Q4 2025: Delta profit surprise raises spirits

Sales and margins were better than expected, driven by newly acquired Delta Wines outperforming our estimates, further boosted by strong seasonality. Market headwinds remain at the beginning of 2026, but we see room for continued profit growth this year from some potential underlying growth in both segments, acquisitions and increased operating efficiency.

Delta acquisition drives Q4 sales and earnings beat

Viva Wine Group’s net sales increased by 49 per cent to SEK 1,774m (1,194), boosted by the acquisition of Delta Wines. Despite a 1.6 per cent decline in organic sales due to a soft B2B market for Wine in the Nordics and Europe, group sales beat our estimates by some 2 per cent. The higher-than-expected sales were mainly driven by a larger-than-anticipated revenue contribution from newly acquired Delta Wines (up 30 per cent from the previous quarter to SEK 618m). Hence, Delta’s seasonality seems more pronounced than in the Nordics operations. In addition, Viva states that Delta’s growth was positive in the quarter, outpacing the broader market. For 2026, we would expect market headwinds to gradually abate following the weakness of 2025, as, for example, household consumption in Sweden is expected to grow faster this year. We assume an underlying growth for the B2B segment of some 2.8 per cent in 2026 (-0.2 per cent in 2025).

The positive trend in the underlying profitability is set to continue

Adjusted EBITA was ten per cent higher than our expectations at SEK 159m (104).  The main deviation was higher sales and margins in Delta Wines than we had assumed, with an EBITA margin of 8.1 per cent versus 10 per cent for the B2B segment as a whole.  We believe the outcome should boost investor confidence in Viva’s outlook and financial targets. The B2C segment EBITA was somewhat below expectations; however, the 4.5 per cent organic growth and continued increase in new customers were positives. If the B2C markets improve, we expect solid operating leverage in the segment. Further, Viva guides for group OPEX-to-sales to decline by about 1.2 percentage points in 2026 as investments in group initiatives wane somewhat. This should help underpin margins. At the same time, gross margins are expected to be flat. In sum, we see room for margins to increase somewhat.

Valuation is enticing based on our estimates

We are encouraged by the underlying margin improvement and the positive contribution from Delta Wines, and raise our estimates a notch. While declining wine markets are a negative, we still see room for profit growth this year from improved operating leverage and potential underlying sales growth. We calculate that Viva Wine Group is still valued below its peers, with an EV/EBIT 2026E of 9.7x, compared to 13.7x, underscoring the rerating potential of the shares.

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